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What a difference a few weeks makes.

In early May, mortgage shoppers could still shop around for loan deals with interest rates shy of 5%.

But that was then and this is now. Today, on June 15, mortgage rates, as measured by the BankingMyWay.com mortgage rate tracker, are on the fast track to 6%, clocking in at 5.89% for a fixed-rate, 30-year loan. Mortgage rates on 15-year fixed rate loans are at 5.44%, up over 30 basis points from last week, while 5-year ARMs are at 5.43% - again, up 10 basis points from a week ago.

The continued upward mortgage trend is one built on momentum, and not on any hard news coming from the economy. Sure, the latest inflation gauge, as measured by last week’s Import and Export Index (the price of goods and products imported into the U.S.) shows a 1.3% uptick, suggesting inflation remains a threat (although that number is down from the 1.6% hike in the index a month earlier). We should get a better handle on inflation when the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) pop up this week.

But the rise in mortgage rates seems to have as much to do with consumer emotions than it does any hard economic data. Consumer sentiment, for example, is a big factor in weighing the potential impact of inflation on mortgage rates (any uptick in inflation usually leads to a proportionate hike in mortgage rates). If consumers are bullish on the economy, so goes the theory, then they’ll begin spending and drive the cost of goods and services upward, bringing rates with them. One key consumer indicator is already in from last week -- the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose slightly to 69 in mid-June, up from 68.7 in May.

Also, a recovering economy draws more investors out of bonds (making rates go up on U.S. Treasury bonds) and into the stock market, making mortgage rates even higher.

One check on inflation could come from a familiar source, the oil sector.

Last week, oil popped to $73 a barrel after the International Energy Agency hiked its estimate for 2009 oil demand for the first time in 10 months. That’s a steady trend that is impacting the price of gasoline at the pumps, at perhaps the worst time possible, as consumers head into the busy summer vacation travel season. According to the American Automobile Association (AAA), the price of gasoline rose a few cents, to $2.63 a gallon last week. There’s an air of inevitability over gas pricing trends, as energy analysts estimate that gasoline prices still have some upward maneuverability. According to AAA, the average price for a gallon of gas will average $2.75 this summer. The trade association had estimated the average price of gas this summer to be at $2.50 just a month ago.

Higher gas prices should tamp down any strong consumer sentiment for this summer, thus reducing economic spending and leaving less money to invest in the stock market, and also reducing any big appetite for market risk.

All in all, that could help mortgage prices, as the Federal Reserve will be forced to keep interest rates low to maintain the moderate economic momentum that we’ve seen this spring. Low interest rates equate to lower mortgage rates, and that’s about the one saving grace the real estate market can point to this week.

For now, though, it’s a pull back for mortgage shoppers. Mortgage applications are down 7.2% last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, as buying a new home or refinancing an existing one becomes less attractive, thanks to higher rates.

That’s one trend that should not end this week.

— For more ways to save, spend, invest and borrow, visit MainStreet.com.