Real estate investors may note the date of May 21, 2009 as being the turning point when mortgage rates started going higher, after months of relatively low mortgage interest rates.
That’s when Bill Gross, manager of the $154 billion Pimco Total Return Fund, the world's biggest bond fund, said that the United States will eventually lose its top AAA credit rating, thus triggering a big sell off not only on bonds, but on the dollar, as well.
In an interview with Reuters last Thursday, Gross said that the U.S. will face a downgrade in "at least three to four years, if that, but the market will recognize the problems before the rating services -- just like it did today” (when the financial markets suffered big declines).
The U.K. finds itself in the same boat, as Standard & Poors cut its rating on the country’s financials to “negative” from “stable.” That gives the U.K. a one-in-three shot of losing its “AAA” credit rating.
Gross’ comments caused a ripple effect across the U.S. financial sector, and mortgage rates were no exception. Rates had been fairly stable since March, with the 30-year-fixed mortgage rate trending slightly below 5.0% as the Federal Reserve stepped up efforts to buy mortgage-backed securities to help keep rates low.
But that was only meant to be a temporary measure meant to re-ignite the U.S. housing market. After all, even the Fed doesn’t have limitless coffers and couldn’t keep buying mortgage securities forever. But the Gross comments and the ensuing rumors over the U.S. credit rating could easily mitigate any further impact of the Fed’s mortgage purchase policy, especially as it winds down as we head into a capital environment where the President admits “there is no money left.”
Consequently, the ingredients for higher mortgage rates have been baked into the cake for this week (and probably longer) as key rates are growing higher (even as others stay lower). According to the BankingMyWay weekly mortgage rate indicator, 30-year-fixed rates have jumped from 5.085% to 5.097% this week, even though 15-year rate weren’t as affected (down from 4.81% to 4.72% for the week). Adjustable-rate mortgages also fell, from 4.87% to 4.72% for five-year ARMs.
But it’s the 30-year rate that usually leads the parade and, right now, that rate is on the rise. News that could further impact rates this week are three key housing benchmarks; Tuesday’s Case-Shiller home price index (which should show prices continuing to fall on U.S. homes, but no more so than in February); existing home sales numbers on Wednesday (where we should see a minimal gain); and new home sales on Thursday, where another slight gain is expected.
Even so, it’s still a good time to get a good mortgage rate, especially as more evidence mounts that the window to lower rates could be closing.
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Higher Rates