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Hold the phone. Could last week’s decline in mortgage rates may be more mirage than (downward) momentum?

It could be – at least in the longer term.

Let’s get to the back story first. After fixed-rate mortgages were in decline last week, things have stabilized a bit, as 30-year mortgages rates inched upward this week. Meanwhile, adjustable-rate mortgages, which had begun to mount an upward slope, lost their grip and fell backward, as measured by the BankingMyWay Weekly Mortgage Rate Tracker.

Here’s where we are at mid-week: 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, which fell six basis points last week, reversed course and rose to 5.29% from 5.26% for the first three days of the week. Fifteen-year fixed-rate mortgages basically held their ground at 4.72%, while three-year and five-year ARMs slipped significantly to 4.70% and 4.56% from 5.19%% and 4.70%, respectively.

One-year ARMs are increasingly volatile, free-falling to 4.71% from 5.33% through Wednesday. That comes after skyrocketing to 4.92% from 4.16% last week.

OK, so why the modest reversal in mortgage borrower’s fortunes?

For starters, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke used his bully pulpit this week to announce that the recession is “very likely over.” Wall Street has held this belief for months, which is a big reason why the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 54% in value from March 9 to Sept. 11 this year.

There’s also fresh news that retail sales are heading back upward. The Commerce Department reported Sept. 15 that total retail sales climbed 2.7% last month, significantly up from July's revised decline of 0.2%. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had predicted that August sales would rise by 2%

In addition, new data suggests that consumer confidence might be spiking upward ahead of schedule. According to the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, consumer confidence rose to 70.2 this month from 65.7 in August. That’s up from the 67.5 index pegged by a Bloomberg survey of economists.

These numbers are rosier than the experts predicted, and give some credibility to economists who, like Bernanke, say the U.S. is pulling out of our recession.

If that’s true, keep your eye on 10-year US. Treasuries, which act as a good bellwether for mortgage rates. Right now, the 10-year Treasury is yielding about 3.4% - and apparently heading to the 3.5% mark, a benchmark that economists feel is a good indicator that the economy is on the right path.

Also, keep the other eye on upcoming news from the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee, which meets next week. No doubt economists will be looking for any sign that the Federal Reserve is considering hiking interest rates in the near future – a sure sign that it believes the economy has climbed out of the recession. Remember, when prime interest rates go up, so do mortgage rates.

Mortgage consumers will find themselves in a quandary with great rates falling into their laps. With no guarantee that these same rates will be there even a few weeks from now – especially if the economic data is recorded in black ink rather than red– the future could be now for anxious mortgage customers.

As always, get the best deal you can by checking out the best mortgage rates on BankingMyWay.com.

— For more ways to save, spend, invest and borrow, visit MainStreet.com.