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Two themes dominated the mortgage rate marketplace this week – but there’s no solid proof that either one can keep mortgage rates on a sustained downward trajectory.

But there is some proof emerging that the housing market has survived the worst of the recession.

For the week, mortgage rates were down in most sectors, as 30-year fixed mortgage rates abruptly fell from 5.47% to 5.37% according to the BankingMyWay National Mortgage Rate Tracker. Similarly, the index saw 15-year rates slide from 4.97% to 4.90%.

On the adjustable-rate side of the market, one-year ARMs were in freefall, plummeting from 4.64% to 4.20%, while five-year ARMs fell much more moderately, from 4.95% to 4.92%.

The only exception to the rule last week was in three-year ARMs, which increased from 4.87% to 4.98%.

The primary reason that mortgage rates eased back last week? Look to the first of our two themes: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s testimony in front a U.S. Senate panel that inflation was not on the horizon – and even if it was, the Fed was well positioned to deal with it. Regular readers of BankingMyWay know that higher inflation equals higher interest rates. So with talks of inflation quashed by Bernanke (for now, at least), it’s no surprise that rates have fallen of late.

Another key theme this week is the mostly encouraging news from the U.S. housing market. The National Association of Realtors, which admittedly has some skin in the game, reports that median home prices increased for the second month in a row – just beating analyst expectations. Even better, the NAR reports that sales of existing homes rose 3.6% for June, 2009. That’s the first time since 2004 that existing home sales increased for three straight months.

While the home sales numbers should have a positive impact across the board for the long-struggling housing market, it’s the median sales figures that should really boost spirits. In January of 2009, the NAR reports that the median U.S. house averaged $164,000 in value. Six months later, that number has risen to $181,000.

True, housing prices have a long way to go to fully recover – after all, the average price of a U.S. home in June 2008 was $215,000, the NAR says. But underlying factors to slower, or even negative housing growth, including the high number of foreclosures we’ve seen in the past six months, are abating. The fastest growing sector of the housing market is low-end markets, where foreclosures are more prevalent. Less foreclosures means higher home values, and higher home values means more relieved consumers, which really helps the economy.

In the end, the mortgage market is usually on cycle or another. In the past two years, it’s been a huge downward cycle, with home prices dropping amidst a sour economic climate. But perhaps we’re seeing the makings of a new cycle now. With home prices on the rise, and interest rates still relatively cheap, buyers (especially newbie’s) figure to be more aggressive in the real estate market.

That should buck up sales figures, take some pressure off of homeowners and erase those headlines about how terrible the housing market is right now. When that happens, the positive cycle only grows faster – and larger.

While we’re not there yet, that’s the end game. And momentum shows that, finally, the housing market may be heading in the right direction.

— For more ways to save, spend, invest and borrow, visit MainStreet.com.