An anxious mortgage market awaits news from the Federal Reserve about the future of interest rates, even as data from the U.S. housing sector indicates that a recovery seems to be under way.
But a major Federal Housing Administration lender went down last week, leaving scores of borrowers scrambling for new loan alternatives or see their deals deep-sixed.
In other words, it’s business as usual for an unsteady mortgage rate market. Unsure about exactly where the economy is headed, given the mixed bag of economic news we’re getting, rates continue to bounce around. This week, according to the BankingMyWay weekly National Mortgage Rate Tracker, rates bounced upward again.
The biggest swing was at the highest fixed-rate levels, with the 30-year mortgage rate climbing to 5.56% from 5.47%; and the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage soaring to 4.97% from 4.88% for the week.
Adjustable-rate mortgages also took a northerly path, with five-year ARMs moving to 5.04% from 4.85%; and three-year ARMs on a launching pad, skyrocketing to 5.08% from 4.72%. Only one-year ARMs took a different direction, falling to 4.2% from 4.66%.
The main economic event last week was the stock market, which really picked up steam amid encouraging economic news. Usually, when the stock market heats up, it triggers a bounce in 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds, which in turn acts as a spark for higher mortgage rates.
That’s what we saw last week, as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index closed the week above the 1,000 level – a big wall that investors had been hoping to break through for months. News from Goldman Sachs (Stock Symbol: GS) that the S&P 500 should reach 1,100 by December should continue to fuel higher stock prices early in the week, any significantly bad economic news notwithstanding.
Still, the jumps we saw last week in mortgage rates were, across the spectrum, higher than any that we’ve seen since June, 2009. Back in June, continued talk from economic elites about “green shoots” fueled a short-term burst in stock prices. But as evidence mounted that the economy wasn’t leaping out of the sick ward anytime soon, that rally withered away, taking mortgage rates down with it.
Consequently, the question that mortgage watchers are asking this week is whether this upward spike in mortgage rates is “for real”. That’s why so much attention was paid last week to comments from Federal Reserve officials, who indicated that the economic governing body would cease buying U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities come September. That program had been a major factor in keeping mortgage rates down, and when it goes, many mortgage watchers expect rates to really kick into higher gear.
Rumors also abound that the Fed will keep rates interest right where they are. That would send a signal that the Federal Reserve really isn’t all that sure when the “Great Recession” will finally end. So it’s playing it safe by leaving interest rates low, but opening the door for higher mortgage rates by abandoning it’s rate-lowering U.S. Treasury and mortgage-backed securities buyback program.
Further muddying the waters was last week’s collapse of the nation’s third-largest FHA-mortgage lender Taylor, Bean & Whitaker. The lender was shut down by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development because of potential fraud abuses. That news shook the mortgage industry, and left thousands of potential mortgage borrowers in the lurch last week.
As always, it’s hard to say where mortgage rates are headed next. The best move for mortgage consumes is to be ready to buy when the rates turn in their favor. Get that party started by hitting BankingMyWay’s Mortgage Rate Search everyday, until you get your best deal.
That’s a great move if you’re serious about locking down a good mortgage rate soon.
— For more ways to save, spend, invest and borrow, visit MainStreet.com.
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