Cramer: Govt. Housing Plans Will Work
By: BankingMyWay.com Staff

By Jim Cramer

How much can the housing market benefit from the changes that both presidential administrations have made in the last six months? I think a substantial amount. Not enough to turn it around right now, but enough, I think, to ensure that we see a bottom in the second half of the year—in keeping with my long standing predictions.

Let’s go over the positives, many of which are provided by the best single source on mortgage information: Manhattan Mortgage.

1. Fannie and Freddie are on the team, as witnessed by the new $729,750 conforming limit, which will jumpstart the most awful part of the market. At the same time, President Obama has now allowed Fannie Mae (Stock Quote: FNM) and Freddie Mac (Stock Quote: FRE) to purchase refinanced mortgages up to 105% loan to value, and will offer a streamlined refinance program.

2. The Federal Reserve will buy Fannie/Freddie mortgage backed securities. They are doing this to keep rates low, and have made this claim repeatedly.  This is despite the fact that as recently as a year ago—when I met with them—they swore this would not have to be done. This is very positive because mortgage money can go to 4.5% under this buying power.

3. This Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility program (TALF) starts this week. That means the Fed is going to lend money on a leveraged basis to buy all sorts of loans. This is the fed as the prime broker, and among the loans to be purchased are jumbo residential mortgages. That’s going to lower those rates, which is really important for kick starting this stagnant part of the market.

4. The possibilities of mark-to-market being adjusted to be more rigorous and less strict, which is an inaccurate reflection of true portfolios, could keep properties off the market. Of course we could get real lucky and have Tim Geithner agree with Ben Bernanke about giving the banks more money—as he mentioned in Sunday’s 60 Minutes interview—as Bernanke is not cowed by politically populist forces.  I also think that the keepers of FASB 157—the mark-to-market directive—got a lot of heat last week from Barney Frank and received their marching orders: suggest more forbearance or run the risk of being marginalized. A major change. Now the ratings agencies are next to take their beating.

5. There’s a mortgage aid program that allows distressed borrowers to get better terms that reflect 31% of their income. While I’d rather see the government get into this business temporarily, with 4% mortgages for everyone, in part because many of the troubled borrowers are part of the cash economy and can’t benefit, there will be some people—fewer than one in nine, but some—who will benefit from a DRAMATIC decline in the interest rates for distressed borrowers.

All of these matter. Sure, if there were a $15,000 tax credit for buying an existing home I think the inventory would simply go away. And because we don’t need new supply competing with foreclosed supply, I also think that anything that makes it so the home builders are not helped because would be terrific (albeit punitive) for these companies.

But the agglomeration of these initiatives will impact the housing market in a positive way. They cannot be dismissed as all dross and all sound and fury signifying nothing.

—For more ways to save, spend, invest and borrow, visit MainStreet.com.

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